时间

实际值

n = 3

n = 4

预测值

绝对离差

预测值

绝对离差

2015.5

65,257

2015.6

49,231

2015.7

53,227

2015.8

44,294

55,905

11,611

2015.9

23,036

48,917.33

25,881.33

53,002.25

29,966.25

2015.10

29,899

40,185.67

10,286.67

42,447

12,548

2015.11

35,909

32,409.67

3499.333

37,614

1705

2015.12

39,609

29,614.67

9994.333

33,284.5

6324.5

2016.1

18,466

35,139

16,673

32,113.25

13,647.25

2016.2

30,582

31,328

746

30,970.75

388.75

2016.3

23,383

29,552.33

6169.333

31,141.5

7758.5

2016.4

21,501

24,143.67

2642.667

28,010

6509

2016.5

22,549

25,155.33

2606.333

23,483

934

2016.6

25,157

22,477.67

2679.333

24,503.75

653.25

2016.7

20,315

23,069

2754

23,147.5

2832.5

2016.8

24,061

22,673.67

1387.333

22,380.5

1680.5

2016.9

20,111

23,177.67

3066.667

23,020.5

2909.5

2016.10

12,692

21,495.67

8803.667

22,411

9719

2016.11

17,663

18,954.67

1291.667

19,294.75

1631.75

2016.12

24,312

16,822

7490

18,631.75

5680.25

2017.1

17,233

18,222.33

989.3333

18,694.5

1461.5

2017.2

15,144

19,736

4592

17,975

2831

2017.3

13,055

18,896.33

5841.333

18,588

5533

2017.4

11,201

15,144

3943

17,436

6235

2017.5

14,386

13,133.33

1252.667

14,158.25

227.75

2017.6

11,288

12,880.67

1592.667

13,446.5

2158.5

2017.7

13,549

12,291.67

1257.333

12,482.5

1066.5

2017.8

12,228

13,074.33

846.3333

12,606

378

2017.9

11,035

12,355

1320

12,862.75

1827.75

平均绝对离差

5354.5

5064.28