时间 | 实际值 | n = 3 | n = 4 | ||
预测值 | 绝对离差 | 预测值 | 绝对离差 | ||
2015.5 | 65,257 | ||||
2015.6 | 49,231 | ||||
2015.7 | 53,227 | ||||
2015.8 | 44,294 | 55,905 | 11,611 | ||
2015.9 | 23,036 | 48,917.33 | 25,881.33 | 53,002.25 | 29,966.25 |
2015.10 | 29,899 | 40,185.67 | 10,286.67 | 42,447 | 12,548 |
2015.11 | 35,909 | 32,409.67 | 3499.333 | 37,614 | 1705 |
2015.12 | 39,609 | 29,614.67 | 9994.333 | 33,284.5 | 6324.5 |
2016.1 | 18,466 | 35,139 | 16,673 | 32,113.25 | 13,647.25 |
2016.2 | 30,582 | 31,328 | 746 | 30,970.75 | 388.75 |
2016.3 | 23,383 | 29,552.33 | 6169.333 | 31,141.5 | 7758.5 |
2016.4 | 21,501 | 24,143.67 | 2642.667 | 28,010 | 6509 |
2016.5 | 22,549 | 25,155.33 | 2606.333 | 23,483 | 934 |
2016.6 | 25,157 | 22,477.67 | 2679.333 | 24,503.75 | 653.25 |
2016.7 | 20,315 | 23,069 | 2754 | 23,147.5 | 2832.5 |
2016.8 | 24,061 | 22,673.67 | 1387.333 | 22,380.5 | 1680.5 |
2016.9 | 20,111 | 23,177.67 | 3066.667 | 23,020.5 | 2909.5 |
2016.10 | 12,692 | 21,495.67 | 8803.667 | 22,411 | 9719 |
2016.11 | 17,663 | 18,954.67 | 1291.667 | 19,294.75 | 1631.75 |
2016.12 | 24,312 | 16,822 | 7490 | 18,631.75 | 5680.25 |
2017.1 | 17,233 | 18,222.33 | 989.3333 | 18,694.5 | 1461.5 |
2017.2 | 15,144 | 19,736 | 4592 | 17,975 | 2831 |
2017.3 | 13,055 | 18,896.33 | 5841.333 | 18,588 | 5533 |
2017.4 | 11,201 | 15,144 | 3943 | 17,436 | 6235 |
2017.5 | 14,386 | 13,133.33 | 1252.667 | 14,158.25 | 227.75 |
2017.6 | 11,288 | 12,880.67 | 1592.667 | 13,446.5 | 2158.5 |
2017.7 | 13,549 | 12,291.67 | 1257.333 | 12,482.5 | 1066.5 |
2017.8 | 12,228 | 13,074.33 | 846.3333 | 12,606 | 378 |
2017.9 | 11,035 | 12,355 | 1320 | 12,862.75 | 1827.75 |
平均绝对离差 |
| 5354.5 |
| 5064.28 |