年份

实际留学生数(万人)

GM (1, 1)模型

拟合值(万人)

残差

相对残差

2005

11.8515

11.8515

0

0

2006

13.4

17.65928

−4.259277

0.3178565

2007

14.4

19.83468

−5.43468

0.3774084

2008

17.98

22.27807

−4.298066

0.239047

2009

22.93

25.02245

−2.092446

0.09125365

2010

28.47

28.1049

0.3651002

0.01282403

2011

33.97

31.56707

2.402927

0.07073673

2012

39.96

35.45574

4.504256

0.1127191

2013

41.39

39.82345

1.56655

0.03784853

2014

45.98

44.7292

1.250798

0.02720308

2015

52.37

50.23928

2.130717

0.04068583

2016

54.45

56.42814

−1.978137

0.03632942

2017

60.84

63.37938

−2.53938

0.04173866

2018

66.21

71.18693

−4.97693

0.07516886