年份

实际值

BP

CSGM(1,1)

GM(1,1)

组合预测模型

2008

321,500.5

307,020.8

273,138.6

400,044.6

287,265.4

2009

348,498.5

375,943.9

312,980.9

459,224.2

339,427.2

2010

411,265.2

480,925.3

358,635

527,158.4

410,249.7

2011

484,753.2

591,258.7

410,948.5

605,142.4

487,169.4

2012

539,116.5

648,890.1

470,893

694,662.6

546,070.8

2013

590,422.4

695,708.5

539,581.4

797,425.9

605,395.9

2014

644,791.1

713,382.3

618,289.3

915,391.2

658,085.5

2015

686,449.6

736,190.6

708,478.3

1,050,807

719,547.5

2016

741,140.4

732,242.4

811,823

1,206,256

777,189.4