模型名称

参数估计值

MSE

AIC

Model 1

GO

$a=3115$

$b=0.0103$

5033

1632

Model 2

DSS

$a=2599$

$b=0.0310$

11043

1782

Model 3

GO_ASDE

$a_1=2091$

$b_1=0.1868$

${\delta }_1=0.5899$

650

996

$a_2=144.2$

$b_2=0.0484$

${\delta }_2=0.2761$

$a_3=781.5$

$b_3=0.1668$

${\delta }_3=0.5730$

$a_4=590.6$

$b_4=0.0541$

${\delta }_4=0.3451$

Model 4

DSS_ASDE

$a_1=1859$

$b_1=0.0341$

${\delta }_1=0.0023$

1922

1068

$a_2=122.2$

$b_2=0.0298$

${\delta }_2=1\text{e}-8$

$a_3=289.2$

$b_3=0.0315$

${\delta }_3=0.1066$

$a_4=331.3$

$b_4=0.0248$

${\delta }_4=0.0287$