序列

实际值

指数曲线

APE (%)

修正指数曲线

APE (%)

时间一次项指数 曲线

APE (%)

1

2

1.5609

21.9558

2.9429

47.1437

2.2070

10.3498

2

4

2.5228

36.9311

4.0008

0.0201

4.1346

3.3654

3

6

4.0774

32.0439

5.6860

5.2335

6.4947

8.2450

4

9

6.5900

26.7781

8.3703

6.9963

9.5862

6.5132

5

14

10.6509

23.9218

12.6463

9.6696

13.9147

0.6092

6

20

17.2144

13.9279

19.4574

2.7129

20.3354

1.6770

7

30

27.8225

7.2582

30.3070

1.0233

30.2946

0.9818

8

46

44.9677

2.2441

47.5893

3.4551

46.2382

0.5179

9

72

72.6784

0.9422

75.1186

4.3314

72.3035

0.4215

10

115

117.4653

2.1437

118.9702

3.4524

115.4873

0.4237

11

187

189.8514

1.5248

188.8219

0.9743

187.6233

0.3333

12

309

306.8443

0.6976

300.0893

2.8837

308.7258

0.0887

13

516

495.9322

3.8891

477.3282

7.4945

512.6448

0.6502

14

865

801.5426

7.3361

759.6538

12.1788

856.6300

0.9676

15

1458

1295.4806

11.1467

1209.3729

17.0526

1437.5075

1.4055

RMSPEPR (%)

18.9258

4.5739

3.3928

RMSPEPO (%)

8.0248

12.8489

1.0543

RMSPE (%)

17.1823

7.1983

3.0467