年份

原始数据

(单位:万对)

模拟数据 (单位:万对)

原始/模拟

γ

相对误差

绝对误差

状态

1986

882.3

882.3

1

0

0

M2

1987

924.7

889.3281

1.039773735

−0.039773735

−35.3719

M3

1988

899.2

893.0395

1.006898351

−0.006898351

−6.1605

M3

1989

934.8

896.7663

1.042412053

−0.042412053

−38.0337

M4

1990

951.1

900.5087

1.056180801

−0.056180801

−50.5913

M4

1991

953.6

904.2667

1.054556139

−0.054556139

−49.3333

M4

1992

954.5

908.0404

1.051164684

−0.051164684

−46.4596

M4

1993

912.1

911.8299

1.000296218

−0.000296218

−0.2701

M2

1994

929

915.6351

1.014596317

−0.014596317

−13.3649

M3

1995

929.7

919.4562

1.011141151

−0.011141151

−10.2438

M3

1996

934

923.2933

1.011596207

−0.011596207

−10.7067

M3

1997

909

927.1464

0.980427687

0.019572313

18.1464

M2

1998

891.8

931.0156

0.957878686

0.042121314

39.2156

M2

1999

885.3

934.9009

0.946945286

0.053054714

49.6009

M2

2000

848.5

938.8025

0.903810972

0.096189028

90.3025

M1

2001

805

942.7202

0.853911903

0.146088097

137.7202

M1

2002

786

946.6545

0.830292361

0.169707639

160.6545

M1

2003

811.4

950.605

0.853561679

0.146438321

139.205

M1

2004

867.2

954.5721

0.908469879

0.091530121

87.3721

M1

2005

823.1

958.5557

0.858687711

0.141312289

135.4557

M1

2006

945

962.556

0.981761061

0.018238939

17.556

M2

2007

991.4

966.5729

1.025685698

−0.025685698

−24.8271

M3

2008

1098.3

970.6066

1.131560408

−0.131560408

−127.6934

M4

2009

1212.2

974.6572

1.24371933

−0.24371933

−237.5428

M5

2010

1241

978.7246

1.267976712

−0.267976712

−262.2754

M5

2011

1302.4

982.809

1.32518119

−0.32518119

−319.591

M5

2012

1323.6

986.9105

1.341155049

−0.341155049

−336.6895

M5

2013

1346.9

991.0291

1.359092281

−0.359092281

−355.8709

M5

2014

1306.7

995.1649

1.313048722

−0.313048722

−311.5351

M5

2015

1224.7

999.3179

1.225535938

−0.225535938

−225.3821

M5

2016

1142.8

1003.488

1.138827769

−0.138827769

−139.312

M4

2017

1063.1

1007.676

1.055001806

−0.055001806

−55.424

M4

2018

1013.9

1011.881

1.001995294

−0.001995294

−2.019

M3

2019

927.3

1016.104

0.912603434

0.087396566

88.804

M2

2020

814.3

1020.344

0.798064182

0.201935818

206.044

M1

2021

763.6

1024.603

0.745264263

0.254735737

261.003

M1