时间 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 平均相对误差 | |
最小二乘模型 | 稻谷 | 20298 | 20775 | 21040 | 21421 | 21690 | 21956 | 4.29% |
小麦 | 12162 | 12671 | 12975 | 13282 | 13664 | 14197 | 7.38% | |
玉米 | 17810 | 18529 | 19635 | 20572 | 21125 | 21809 | 3.28% | |
似乎不相关模型 | 稻谷 | 20270 | 20739 | 21000 | 21374 | 21639 | 21901 | 4.08% |
小麦 | 12016 | 12481 | 12759 | 13040 | 13389 | 13876 | 5.95% | |
玉米 | 17848 | 18567 | 19692 | 20642 | 21194 | 21876 | 3.08% | |
实际值 | 稻谷 | 19,576.10 | 20,100.09 | 20,423.59 | 20,361.22 | 20,650.74 | 20,822.52 |
|
小麦 | 11,518.08 | 11,740.09 | 12,102.36 | 12,192.64 | 12,620.84 | 13,018.52 | ||
玉米 | 17,724.51 | 19,278.11 | 20,561.41 | 21,848.90 | 21,564.63 | 22,463.16 |