数据来源 | 时间 | 实际日产量/t | Arps产量递减模型 |
| GM(1,1)幂模型 | |||
实际生产时间/d | 建模时间/100 d | 产量预测值/ (t∙d−1) | 递减率预测值/ (100 d)−1 |
| 产量预测值/ (t∙d−1) | 递减率预测值/ (100 d)−1 | ||
样本值 | 3780 | 0.0 | 902.2 | 902.2 | 0.05 |
| 902.2 | 0.057 |
4000 | 2.2 | 799.2 | 809.7 | 0.048 |
| 799.0 | 0.053 | |
4220 | 4.4 | 714.0 | 729.1 | 0.047 |
| 713.8 | 0.050 | |
4440 | 6.6 | 641.8 | 658.6 | 0.045 |
| 642.1 | 0.047 | |
4660 | 8.8 | 580.3 | 596.8 | 0.044 |
| 581.3 | 0.044 | |
4880 | 11.0 | 527.9 | 542.3 | 0.043 |
| 529.1 | 0.042 | |
5100 | 13.2 | 482.6 | 494.1 | 0.042 |
| 484.0 | 0.040 | |
5320 | 15.4 | 443.8 | 451.3 | 0.041 |
| 444.6 | 0.038 | |
预测值 | 5540 | 17.6 |
| 413.2 | 0.040 |
| 410.1 | 0.036 |
5760 | 19.8 |
| 379.2 | 0.039 |
| 379.6 | 0.034 | |
5980 | 22.0 |
| 348.7 | 0.038 |
| 352.5 | 0.033 | |
6200 | 24.2 |
| 321.4 | 0.037 |
| 328.3 | 0.032 | |
样本平均相对误差*/% | 1.958 |
|
| 0.121 |
|