时间

实际值

n = 5

n = 6

预测值

绝对离差

预测值

绝对离差

2015.5

65,257

2015.6

49,231

2015.7

53,227

2015.8

44,294

2015.9

23,036

2015.10

29,899

47,009

17,110

2015.11

35,909

39,937.4

4028.4

44,157.33

8248.333

2015.12

39,609

37,273

2336

39,266

343

2016.1

18,466

34,549.4

16,083.4

37,662.33

19,196.33

2016.2

30,582

29,383.8

1198.2

31,868.83

1286.833

2016.3

23,383

30,893

7510

29,583.5

6200.5

2016.4

21,501

29,589.8

8088.8

29,641.33

8140.333

2016.5

22,549

26,708.2

4159.2

28,241.67

5692.667

2016.6

25,157

23,296.2

1860.8

26,015

858

2016.7

20,315

24,634.4

4319.4

23,606.33

3291.333

2016.8

24,061

22,581

1480

23,914.5

146.5

2016.9

20,111

22,716.6

2605.6

22,827.67

2716.667

2016.10

12,692

22,438.6

9746.6

22,282.33

9590.333

2016.11

17,663

20,467.2

2804.2

20,814.17

3151.167

2016.12

24,312

18,968.4

5343.6

19,999.83

4312.167

2017.1

17,233

19,767.8

2534.8

19,859

2626

2017.2

15,144

18,402.2

3258.2

19,345.33

4201.333

2017.3

13,055

17,408.8

4353.8

17,859.17

4804.167

2017.4

11,201

17,481.4

6280.4

16,683.17

5482.167

2017.5

14,386

16,189

1803

16,434.67

2048.667

2017.6

11,288

14,203.8

2915.8

15,888.5

4600.5

2017.7

13,549

13,014.8

534.2

13,717.83

168.8333

2017.8

12,228

12,695.8

467.8

13,103.83

875.8333

2017.9

11,035

12,530.4

1495.4

12,617.83

1582.833

平均绝对离差

4679.9

4328.9