时间 | 实际值 | n = 5 | n = 6 | ||
预测值 | 绝对离差 | 预测值 | 绝对离差 | ||
2015.5 | 65,257 | ||||
2015.6 | 49,231 | ||||
2015.7 | 53,227 | ||||
2015.8 | 44,294 | ||||
2015.9 | 23,036 | ||||
2015.10 | 29,899 | 47,009 | 17,110 | ||
2015.11 | 35,909 | 39,937.4 | 4028.4 | 44,157.33 | 8248.333 |
2015.12 | 39,609 | 37,273 | 2336 | 39,266 | 343 |
2016.1 | 18,466 | 34,549.4 | 16,083.4 | 37,662.33 | 19,196.33 |
2016.2 | 30,582 | 29,383.8 | 1198.2 | 31,868.83 | 1286.833 |
2016.3 | 23,383 | 30,893 | 7510 | 29,583.5 | 6200.5 |
2016.4 | 21,501 | 29,589.8 | 8088.8 | 29,641.33 | 8140.333 |
2016.5 | 22,549 | 26,708.2 | 4159.2 | 28,241.67 | 5692.667 |
2016.6 | 25,157 | 23,296.2 | 1860.8 | 26,015 | 858 |
2016.7 | 20,315 | 24,634.4 | 4319.4 | 23,606.33 | 3291.333 |
2016.8 | 24,061 | 22,581 | 1480 | 23,914.5 | 146.5 |
2016.9 | 20,111 | 22,716.6 | 2605.6 | 22,827.67 | 2716.667 |
2016.10 | 12,692 | 22,438.6 | 9746.6 | 22,282.33 | 9590.333 |
2016.11 | 17,663 | 20,467.2 | 2804.2 | 20,814.17 | 3151.167 |
2016.12 | 24,312 | 18,968.4 | 5343.6 | 19,999.83 | 4312.167 |
2017.1 | 17,233 | 19,767.8 | 2534.8 | 19,859 | 2626 |
2017.2 | 15,144 | 18,402.2 | 3258.2 | 19,345.33 | 4201.333 |
2017.3 | 13,055 | 17,408.8 | 4353.8 | 17,859.17 | 4804.167 |
2017.4 | 11,201 | 17,481.4 | 6280.4 | 16,683.17 | 5482.167 |
2017.5 | 14,386 | 16,189 | 1803 | 16,434.67 | 2048.667 |
2017.6 | 11,288 | 14,203.8 | 2915.8 | 15,888.5 | 4600.5 |
2017.7 | 13,549 | 13,014.8 | 534.2 | 13,717.83 | 168.8333 |
2017.8 | 12,228 | 12,695.8 | 467.8 | 13,103.83 | 875.8333 |
2017.9 | 11,035 | 12,530.4 | 1495.4 | 12,617.83 | 1582.833 |
平均绝对离差 |
| 4679.9 |
| 4328.9 |