时间 | 实际值 | a = 0.1 | a = 0.3 | ||
预测值 | 绝对离差 | 预测值 | 绝对离差 | ||
2015.5 | 65,257 |
|
| 65,257 |
|
2015.6 | 49,231 | 65,257 | 16,026 | 60,449.2 | 16,026 |
2015.7 | 53,227 | 63,654.4 | 10,427.4 | 58,282.54 | 7222.2 |
2015.8 | 44,294 | 62,611.66 | 18,317.66 | 54,085.98 | 13,988.54 |
2015.9 | 23,036 | 60,779.89 | 37,743.89 | 44,770.98 | 31,049.98 |
2015.10 | 29,899 | 57,005.5 | 27,106.5 | 40,309.39 | 14,871.98 |
2015.11 | 35,909 | 54,294.85 | 18,385.85 | 38,989.27 | 4400.389 |
2015.12 | 39,609 | 52,456.27 | 12,847.27 | 39,175.19 | 619.7275 |
2016.1 | 18,466 | 51,171.54 | 32,705.54 | 32,962.43 | 20,709.19 |
2016.2 | 30,582 | 47,900.99 | 17,318.99 | 32,248.3 | 2380.434 |
2016.3 | 23,383 | 46,169.09 | 22,786.09 | 29,588.71 | 8865.303 |
2016.4 | 21,501 | 43,890.48 | 22,389.48 | 27,162.4 | 8087.712 |
2016.5 | 22,549 | 41,651.53 | 19,102.53 | 25,778.38 | 4613.399 |
2016.6 | 25,157 | 39,741.28 | 14,584.28 | 25,591.97 | 621.3791 |
2016.7 | 20,315 | 38,282.85 | 17,967.85 | 24,008.88 | 5276.965 |
2016.8 | 24,061 | 36,486.07 | 12,425.07 | 24,024.51 | 52.12425 |
2016.9 | 20,111 | 35,243.56 | 15,132.56 | 22,850.46 | 3913.513 |
2016.10 | 12,692 | 33,730.3 | 21,038.3 | 19,802.92 | 10,158.46 |
2016.11 | 17,663 | 31,626.47 | 13,963.47 | 19,160.94 | 2139.921 |
2016.12 | 24,312 | 30,230.13 | 5918.126 | 20,706.26 | 5151.055 |
2017.1 | 17,233 | 29,638.31 | 12,405.31 | 19,664.28 | 3473.261 |
2017.2 | 15,144 | 28,397.78 | 13,253.78 | 18,308.2 | 4520.283 |
2017.3 | 13,055 | 27,072.4 | 14,017.4 | 16,732.24 | 5253.198 |
2017.4 | 11,201 | 25,670.66 | 14,469.66 | 15,072.87 | 5531.239 |
2017.5 | 14,386 | 24,223.7 | 9837.697 | 14,866.81 | 686.8671 |
2017.6 | 11,288 | 23,239.93 | 11,951.93 | 13,793.16 | 3578.807 |
2017.7 | 13,549 | 22,044.73 | 8495.735 | 13,719.92 | 244.1649 |
2017.8 | 12,228 | 21,195.16 | 8967.161 | 13,272.34 | 1491.915 |
2017.9 | 11,035 | 20,298.44 | 9263.445 | 65,257 | 2237.341 |
平均绝对离差 |
| 16,387 |
| 6684 |