时间

实际值

a = 0.1

a = 0.3

预测值

绝对离差

预测值

绝对离差

2015.5

65,257

65,257

2015.6

49,231

65,257

16,026

60,449.2

16,026

2015.7

53,227

63,654.4

10,427.4

58,282.54

7222.2

2015.8

44,294

62,611.66

18,317.66

54,085.98

13,988.54

2015.9

23,036

60,779.89

37,743.89

44,770.98

31,049.98

2015.10

29,899

57,005.5

27,106.5

40,309.39

14,871.98

2015.11

35,909

54,294.85

18,385.85

38,989.27

4400.389

2015.12

39,609

52,456.27

12,847.27

39,175.19

619.7275

2016.1

18,466

51,171.54

32,705.54

32,962.43

20,709.19

2016.2

30,582

47,900.99

17,318.99

32,248.3

2380.434

2016.3

23,383

46,169.09

22,786.09

29,588.71

8865.303

2016.4

21,501

43,890.48

22,389.48

27,162.4

8087.712

2016.5

22,549

41,651.53

19,102.53

25,778.38

4613.399

2016.6

25,157

39,741.28

14,584.28

25,591.97

621.3791

2016.7

20,315

38,282.85

17,967.85

24,008.88

5276.965

2016.8

24,061

36,486.07

12,425.07

24,024.51

52.12425

2016.9

20,111

35,243.56

15,132.56

22,850.46

3913.513

2016.10

12,692

33,730.3

21,038.3

19,802.92

10,158.46

2016.11

17,663

31,626.47

13,963.47

19,160.94

2139.921

2016.12

24,312

30,230.13

5918.126

20,706.26

5151.055

2017.1

17,233

29,638.31

12,405.31

19,664.28

3473.261

2017.2

15,144

28,397.78

13,253.78

18,308.2

4520.283

2017.3

13,055

27,072.4

14,017.4

16,732.24

5253.198

2017.4

11,201

25,670.66

14,469.66

15,072.87

5531.239

2017.5

14,386

24,223.7

9837.697

14,866.81

686.8671

2017.6

11,288

23,239.93

11,951.93

13,793.16

3578.807

2017.7

13,549

22,044.73

8495.735

13,719.92

244.1649

2017.8

12,228

21,195.16

8967.161

13,272.34

1491.915

2017.9

11,035

20,298.44

9263.445

65,257

2237.341

平均绝对离差

16,387

6684