时间	实际值	a = 0.5		a = 0.7
时间	实际值	预测值	绝对离差	预测值	绝对离差
2015.5	65,257
2015.6	49,231	65,257	16,026	65,257	16,026
2015.7	53,227	57,244	4017	54,038.8	811.8
2015.8	44,294	55,235.5	10,941.5	53,470.54	9176.54
2015.9	23,036	49,764.75	26,728.75	47,046.96	24,010.96
2015.10	29,899	36,400.38	6501.375	30,239.29	340.2886
2015.11	35,909	33,149.69	2759.313	30,001.09	5907.913
2015.12	39,609	34,529.34	5079.656	34,136.63	5472.374
2016.1	18,466	37,069.17	18,603.17	37,967.29	19501.29
2016.2	30,582	27,767.59	2814.414	24,316.39	6265.614
2016.3	23,383	29,174.79	5791.793	28,702.32	5319.316
2016.4	21,501	26,278.9	4777.896	24,978.79	3477.795
2016.5	22,549	23,889.95	1340.948	22,544.34	4.661569
2016.6	25,157	23,219.47	1937.526	22,547.6	2609.398
2016.7	20,315	24,188.24	3873.237	24,374.18	4059.18
2016.8	24,061	22,251.62	1809.381	21,532.75	2528.246
2016.9	20,111	23,156.31	3045.309	23,302.53	3191.526
2016.10	12,692	21,633.65	8941.655	21,068.46	8376.458
2016.11	17,663	17,162.83	500.1727	15,204.94	2458.063
2016.12	24,312	17,412.91	6899.086	16,925.58	7386.419
2017.1	17,233	20,862.46	3629.457	22,096.07	4863.074
2017.2	15,144	19,047.73	3903.728	18,691.92	3547.922
2017.3	13,055	17,095.86	4040.864	16,208.38	3153.377
2017.4	11,201	15,075.43	3874.432	14,001.01	2800.013
2017.5	14,386	13,138.22	1247.784	12,041	2344.996
2017.6	11,288	13,762.11	2474.108	13,682.5	2394.501
2017.7	13,549	12,525.05	1023.946	12,006.35	1542.65
2017.8	12,228	13,037.03	809.027	13,086.21	858.2051
2017.9	11,035	12,632.51	1597.514	12,485.46	1450.462
平均绝对离差			5535		5352