预见期

方法

MAE

CRPS

降幅(%)

α_index

CR(%)

B

PUCI (%)

3 h

确定性预报

40.71

—

—

—

—

—

—

BMA

—

25.97

36.20

0.966

86.79

277.16

22.84

M-BMA

—

22.78

44.04

0.914

84.34

121.76

28.47

6 h

确定性预报

39.97

—

—

—

—

—

—

BMA

—

27.54

31.10

0.962

86.79

302.18

15.31

M-BMA

—

24.08

39.75

0.916

83.87

128.70

21.40

9 h

确定性预报

43.21

—

—

—

—

—

—

BMA

—

31.18

27.84

0.955

86.60

345.13

13.78

M-BMA

—

27.95

35.32

0.928

83.87

146.99

19.31

12 h

确定性预报

48.90

—

—

—

—

—

—

BMA

—

36.30

25.77

0.968

87.08

348.18

19.85

M-BMA

—

32.95

32.62

0.912

84.06

169.04

26.08