|
| 实测 | 供水量预测 | |||||||
| 线性回归 | 二元转折 | BP神经网络 | 智能组合预测 | ||||||
| 年份 |
| 预测值 | 误差(%) | 预测值 | 误差(%) | 预测值 | 误差(%) | 预测值 | 误差(%) |
| 1980 | 411 | 411 | 0.0 | 411 | 0.0 | 411 | 0.0 | 411 | 0.00 |
| 1981 | 744 |
|
|
|
| 719 | 3.36 | 893 | −20.03 |
| 1982 | 1158 |
|
| 1239 | −6.99 | 1201 | −3.71 | 1317 | −13.73 |
| 1983 | 1939 |
|
| 2917 | −50.42 | 2129 | −9.80 | 1841 | 5.05 |
| 1984 | 3645 | 3782 | −3.75 | 4701 | −28.97 | 3799 | −4.22 | 3454 | 5.24 |
| 1985 | 5931 | 5520 | 6.93 | 6592 | −11.15 | 5535 | 6.68 | 5549 | 6.44 |
| 1986 | 7320 | 7848 | −7.22 | 8591 | −17.36 | 7107 | 2.91 | 8107 | −10.75 |
| 1987 | 8563 | 9263 | −8.18 | 10,695 | −24.90 | 9305 | −8.67 | 8803 | −2.80 |
| 1988 | 12,940 | 10,530 | 18.63 | 12,907 | 0.25 | 11,302 | 12.66 | 12,976 | −0.28 |
| 1989 | 15,589 | 14,988 | 3.85 | 15,226 | 2.33 | 14,602 | 6.33 | 15,652 | −0.40 |
| 1990 | 17,106 | 17,687 | −3.39 | 17,651 | −3.19 | 17,100 | 0.04 | 16,602 | 2.95 |
| 1991 | 17,904 | 19,232 | −7.42 | 20,183 | −12.73 | 19,983 | −11.61 | 18,688 | −4.38 |
| 1992 | 21,793 | 20,045 | 8.02 | 22,822 | −4.72 | 23,501 | −7.84 | 21,390 | 1.85 |
| 1993 | 27,390 | 24,007 | 12.35 | 25,568 | 6.65 | 27,019 | 1.35 | 27,742 | −1.29 |
| 1994 | 32,604 | 29,708 | 8.88 | 28,420 | 12.83 | 29,297 | 10.14 | 31,810 | 2.44 |
| 1995 | 33,802 | 35,019 | −3.60 | 31,379 | 7.17 | 32,998 | 2.38 | 33,839 | −0.11 |
| 1996 | 35,655 | 36,240 | −1.64 | 34,446 | 3.39 | 36,554 | −2.52 | 36,159 | −1.41 |
| 1997 | 37,540 | 38,127 | −1.56 | 37,618 | −0.21 | 38,997 | −3.88 | 38,328 | −2.10 |
| 1998 | 41,537 | 40,047 | 3.59 | 40,898 | 1.54 | 41,991 | −1.09 | 40,965 | 1.38 |
| 1999 | 43,938 | 44,119 | −0.41 | 44,285 | −0.79 | 44,560 | −1.42 | 42,959 | 2.23 |
| 2000 | 44,256 | 46,565 | −5.22 | 47,778 | −7.96 | 45,237 | −2.22 | 44,693 | −0.99 |
| 2001 | 46,038 | 46,889 | −1.85 | 51,378 | −11.60 | 45,298 | 1.61 | 46,038 | 0.0 |
| 2005 |
| 57,005 |
| 66,846 |
| 50,589 |
| 51,284 |
|
| 2010 |
| 71,905 |
| 88,585 |
| 58,612 |
| 57,619 |
|
| 2020 |
| 106,178 |
| 140,072 |
| 79,683 |
| 82,937 |
|
| 均方误差 | 2,366,425 |
| 3,862,308 |
| 1,246,362 |
| 240,956 | ||
| 平均绝对误差 | 1219 |
| 1363 |
| 753 |
| 393 | ||
| 平均绝对百分比误差 | 5.92% |
| 9.78% |
| 4.80% |
| 4.09% | ||