Dependent Variable: Y(1)

Method: Least Squares

Sample (adjusted): 2011Q3 2016Q3

Included observations: 21 after adjustments

Convergence achieved after 6 iterations

Y(+1)=Y*EXP(C(1)-C(2)*Y-C(3)*X)

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C(1)

0.614917

0.406481

1.512782

0.1477

C(2)

1.441794

1.180727

1.221107

0.2378

C(3)

0.539741

0.925887

0.582945

0.5672

R-squared

0.301750

Mean dependent var

0.211857

Adjusted R-squared

0.224167

S.D. dependent var

0.037155

S.E. of regression

0.032727

Akaike info criterion

-3.869666

Sum squared resid

0.019279

Schwarz criterion

-3.720448

Log likelihood

43.63149

Hannan-Quinn criter.

-3.837282

Durbin-Watson stat

2.705647