年份

实际数据

AHPGM(1,1)

GM(1,1)

DGM(1,1)

Verhulst

2010

32461.00

32461.00

32461.00

32461.00

32461.00

2011

32657.09

32966.38

34328.62

34374.64

35812.46

2012

39316.59

38240.62

38190.31

38241.33

39501.15

2013

42336.51

43144.59

42486.4

42542.98

43559.09

2014

48898.62

47849.56

47265.76

47328.51

48020.95

2015

52517.99

52518.09

52582.76

52652.35

52924.15

2016

57774.32

57309.62

58497.88

58575.06

58309.01

拟合MAPE

1.2203

1.8646

1.905

2.359

2017

62442.86

62385.98

65078.4

65163.98

64218.8

2018

68952.34

67916.83

72399.18

72494.08

70699.83

2019

75490.23

74085.41

80543.48

80648.72

77801.47

2020

79968.00

81094.56

89603.95

89720.65

85576.15

预测MAPE

1.2156

6.9908

7.1308

3.8633