年份 | 实际数据 | AHPGM(1,1) | GM(1,1) | DGM(1,1) | Verhulst |
2010 | 32461.00 | 32461.00 | 32461.00 | 32461.00 | 32461.00 |
2011 | 32657.09 | 32966.38 | 34328.62 | 34374.64 | 35812.46 |
2012 | 39316.59 | 38240.62 | 38190.31 | 38241.33 | 39501.15 |
2013 | 42336.51 | 43144.59 | 42486.4 | 42542.98 | 43559.09 |
2014 | 48898.62 | 47849.56 | 47265.76 | 47328.51 | 48020.95 |
2015 | 52517.99 | 52518.09 | 52582.76 | 52652.35 | 52924.15 |
2016 | 57774.32 | 57309.62 | 58497.88 | 58575.06 | 58309.01 |
拟合MAPE |
| 1.2203 | 1.8646 | 1.905 | 2.359 |
2017 | 62442.86 | 62385.98 | 65078.4 | 65163.98 | 64218.8 |
2018 | 68952.34 | 67916.83 | 72399.18 | 72494.08 | 70699.83 |
2019 | 75490.23 | 74085.41 | 80543.48 | 80648.72 | 77801.47 |
2020 | 79968.00 | 81094.56 | 89603.95 | 89720.65 | 85576.15 |
预测MAPE |
| 1.2156 | 6.9908 | 7.1308 | 3.8633 |