时间 | 实际值 | 模型一 | 模型二 | 模型三 | 模型四 | ||||
预测值 | AE | 预测值 | AE | 预测值 | AE | 预测值 | AE | ||
2016/07 | 94.01 | 92.48 | 0.016 | 94.60 | 0.006 | 93.17 | 0.009 | 93.12 | 0.009 |
2016/08 | 93.7 | 92.58 | 0.012 | 93.96 | 0.003 | 93.31 | 0.004 | 93.06 | 0.007 |
2016/09 | 94.05 | 93.59 | 0.005 | 93.52 | 0.006 | 93.28 | 0.008 | 93.03 | 0.011 |
2016/10 | 94.1 | 93.96 | 0.001 | 94.19 | 0.001 | 93.18 | 0.010 | 92.82 | 0.014 |
2016/11 | 94.04 | 93.82 | 0.002 | 94.77 | 0.008 | 93.39 | 0.007 | 92.74 | 0.014 |
2016/12 | 94.08 | 96.01 | 0.021 | 94.19 | 0.001 | 96.62 | 0.027 | 96.46 | 0.025 |
2017/01 | 100 | 96.65 | 0.034 | 93.77 | 0.062 | 97.09 | 0.029 | 96.80 | 0.032 |
2017/02 | 100.78 | 96.00 | 0.038 | 94.88 | 0.059 | 97.61 | 0.031 | 97.58 | 0.032 |
2017/03 | 101.13 | 96.96 | 0.041 | 95.16 | 0.059 | 97.90 | 0.032 | 97.11 | 0.040 |
2017/04 | 101.23 | 95.90 | 0.053 | 97.92 | 0.033 | 97.79 | 0.034 | 96.12 | 0.050 |
2017/05 | 101.18 | 96.73 | 0.044 | 95.05 | 0.061 | 98.05 | 0.031 | 96.56 | 0.046 |
2017/06 | 101.37 | 95.77 | 0.055 | 94.50 | 0.068 | 97.97 | 0.034 | 96.92 | 0.044 |
2017/07 | 101.42 | 95.12 | 0.062 | 95.82 | 0.055 | 97.98 | 0.034 | 97.07 | 0.043 |
2017/08 | 101.42 | 96.85 | 0.045 | 93.43 | 0.079 | 98.10 | 0.033 | 97.33 | 0.040 |
2017/09 | 101.44 | 96.80 | 0.046 | 94.63 | 0.067 | 98.14 | 0.033 | 97.29 | 0.041 |
2017/10 | 101.49 | 96.83 | 0.046 | 94.89 | 0.065 | 98.45 | 0.030 | 97.69 | 0.037 |
2017/11 | 101.63 | 97.05 | 0.045 | 94.84 | 0.067 | 98.77 | 0.028 | 97.96 | 0.036 |
2017/12 | 101.72 | 97.24 | 0.044 | 95.22 | 0.064 | 98.57 | 0.031 | 97.93 | 0.037 |
2018/01 | 101.69 | 97.55 | 0.041 | 97.57 | 0.041 | 98.64 | 0.030 | 97.69 | 0.039 |
2018/02 | 101.66 | 97.74 | 0.039 | 93.93 | 0.076 | 98.99 | 0.026 | 98.52 | 0.031 |
|
| MAPE | 3.44% | MAPE | 4.40% | MAPE | 2.50% | MAPE | 3.14% |
|
| RMSE | 3.92 | RMSE | 5.27 | RMSE | 2.73 | RMSE | 3.44 |