年份 | 实际产量(t) | 灰色预测模型 | ARIMA模型 | 组合预测模型 | |||
预测值 | 相对误差 | 预测值 | 相对误差 | 预测值 | 相对误差 | ||
2011 | 105.8 | 105.8 | 0 | 105.8 | 0 | 105.8 | 0 |
2012 | 145.4 | 200.941 | 38.198 | 116.4 | 19.94 | 166.48 | 14.5 |
2013 | 199.87 | 220.544 | 10.344 | 187.1 | 6.39 | 206.91 | 3.52 |
2014 | 257.46 | 240.807 | 6.468 | 245.03 | 4.83 | 242.53 | 5.8 |
2015 | 305.43 | 261.751 | 14.301 | 297.1 | 2.73 | 276.16 | 9.58 |
2016 | 288.85 | 283.4 | 1.887 | 331.5 | 14.77 | 303.01 | 4.9 |
2017 | 315.9 | 305.777 | 3.205 | 270.2 | 14.47 | 291.28 | 7.79 |
2018 | 361.19 | 328.906 | 8.938 | 325.3 | 9.94 | 327.44 | 9.34 |
2019 | 372.76 | 352.813 | 5.351 | 377.76 | 1.34 | 362.98 | 2.62 |
2020 | 381.25 | 377.524 | 0.977 | 363.2 | 4.73 | 371.69 | 2.5 |
2021 | 345.41 | 403.065 | 16.692 | 368.3 | 6.63 | 388.89 | 11.18 |
2022 |
| 429.466 |
| 305.1 |
| 394.37 |
|
2023 |
| 456.755 |
| 267.1 |
| 402.25 |
|
2024 |
| 484.961 |
| 235.6 |
| 437.91 |
|