| 评价指标 | ARIMA模型 | 残差自回归 |
| R2 | 0.96866 | 0.9718 |
| MSE | 0.07799 | 0.08411 |
| RMSE | 0.27926 | 0.29002 |
| MAE | 0.20584 | 0.21636 |
| MAPE | 0.02358 | 0.02694 |
| AIC | 29.2116 | 43.8155 |
| SBC | 34.3193 | 51.8619 |