年份

留学生数量(万人)

留学生归国数量(万人)

真实值

灰色预测 拟合值

灰色移动平均

灰色移动 平均残差平方和

真实值

灰色预测 拟合值

灰色移动 平均

灰色移动 平均残差平方和

2005

11.8515

11.8515

#N/A

#N/A

3.4987

3.4987

#N/A

#N/A

2006

13.4

17.65928

14.75539

1.837082

4.2

10.01488

6.75679

6.537175

2007

14.4

19.83468

18.74698

18.89624

4.4

11.7074

10.86114

41.74633

2008

17.98

22.27807

21.05638

9.464083

6.93

13.68597

12.69669

33.25466

2009

22.93

25.02245

23.65026

0.518774

10.83

15.99891

14.84244

16.09967

2010

28.47

28.1049

26.56368

3.634075

13.48

18.70274

17.35083

14.98329

2011

33.97

31.56707

29.83599

17.09008

18.62

21.86352

20.28313

2.766001

2012

39.96

35.45574

33.51141

41.58438

27.29

25.55847

23.711

12.80928

2013

41.39

39.82345

37.6396

14.06554

35.35

29.87788

27.71818

58.24475

2014

45.98

44.7292

42.27633

13.71721

36.48

34.92727

32.40258

16.62539

2015

52.37

50.23928

47.48424

23.87065

40.91

40.83001

37.87864

9.189143

2016

54.45

56.42814

53.33371

1.246103

43.25

47.73031

44.28016

1.06123

2017

60.84

63.37938

59.90376

0.876545

48.09

55.79678

51.76355

13.49493

2018

66.21

71.18693

67.28316

1.151662

51.94

65.22649

60.51164

73.47293

MSE

10.0296 (灰色预测)

10.56803 (平均后)

34.90909 (灰色预测)

23.09883 (平均后)