年份 | 留学生数量(万人) | 留学生归国数量(万人) | |||||||
真实值 | 灰色预测 拟合值 | 灰色移动平均 | 灰色移动 平均残差平方和 | 真实值 | 灰色预测 拟合值 | 灰色移动 平均 | 灰色移动 平均残差平方和 | ||
2005 | 11.8515 | 11.8515 | #N/A | #N/A | 3.4987 | 3.4987 | #N/A | #N/A | |
2006 | 13.4 | 17.65928 | 14.75539 | 1.837082 | 4.2 | 10.01488 | 6.75679 | 6.537175 | |
2007 | 14.4 | 19.83468 | 18.74698 | 18.89624 | 4.4 | 11.7074 | 10.86114 | 41.74633 | |
2008 | 17.98 | 22.27807 | 21.05638 | 9.464083 | 6.93 | 13.68597 | 12.69669 | 33.25466 | |
2009 | 22.93 | 25.02245 | 23.65026 | 0.518774 | 10.83 | 15.99891 | 14.84244 | 16.09967 | |
2010 | 28.47 | 28.1049 | 26.56368 | 3.634075 | 13.48 | 18.70274 | 17.35083 | 14.98329 | |
2011 | 33.97 | 31.56707 | 29.83599 | 17.09008 | 18.62 | 21.86352 | 20.28313 | 2.766001 | |
2012 | 39.96 | 35.45574 | 33.51141 | 41.58438 | 27.29 | 25.55847 | 23.711 | 12.80928 | |
2013 | 41.39 | 39.82345 | 37.6396 | 14.06554 | 35.35 | 29.87788 | 27.71818 | 58.24475 | |
2014 | 45.98 | 44.7292 | 42.27633 | 13.71721 | 36.48 | 34.92727 | 32.40258 | 16.62539 | |
2015 | 52.37 | 50.23928 | 47.48424 | 23.87065 | 40.91 | 40.83001 | 37.87864 | 9.189143 | |
2016 | 54.45 | 56.42814 | 53.33371 | 1.246103 | 43.25 | 47.73031 | 44.28016 | 1.06123 | |
2017 | 60.84 | 63.37938 | 59.90376 | 0.876545 | 48.09 | 55.79678 | 51.76355 | 13.49493 | |
2018 | 66.21 | 71.18693 | 67.28316 | 1.151662 | 51.94 | 65.22649 | 60.51164 | 73.47293 | |
MSE | 10.0296 (灰色预测) | 10.56803 (平均后) | 34.90909 (灰色预测) | 23.09883 (平均后) | |||||