| 序号 | 年份 | 原始数据 | 指数平滑模型 | 指数平滑–回归模型 | ||
| 拟合数据 | 相对误差 | 拟合数据 | 相对误差 | |||
| 1 | 2005 | 374,970 | 393477.5 | 4.94% | 413127.6 | 10.18% |
| 2 | 2006 | 411,985 | 374,970 | 8.99% | 372063.6 | 9.69% |
| 3 | 2007 | 458,611 | 407358.125 | 11.18% | 462404.5 | 0.83% |
| 4 | 2008 | 577,493 | 463237.875 | 19.79% | 550790.3 | 4.62% |
| 5 | 2009 | 585,868 | 594933.094 | 1.55% | 596503.3 | 1.82% |
| 6 | 2010 | 668,250 | 631871.875 | 5.44% | 635,240 | 4.94% |
| 7 | 2011 | 760,045 | 711987.602 | 6.32% | 665,372 | 12.46% |
| 8 | 2012 | 829,197 | 812877.133 | 1.97% | 773401.8 | 6.73% |
| 9 | 2013 | 830,209 | 894043.482 | 7.69% | 842573.4 | 1.49% |
| 10 | 2014 | 928,182 | 899135.449 | 3.13% | 904120.9 | 2.59% |
| 11 | 2015 | 849,354 | 981149.829 | 15.52% | 934544.6 | 10.03% |
| 12 | 2016 | 883,907 | 909583.466 | 2.91% | 954077.3 | 7.94% |
| 13 | 2017 | 976,763 | 911187.509 | 6.71% | 1001321.4 | 2.51% |
| 14 | 2018 | 1,029,933 | 997624.393 | 3.14% | 1039510.4 | 0.93% |
| 15 | 2019 | 1,047,297 | 1067188.265 | 1.90% | 1074586.9 | 2.61% |
| 16 | 2020 | 1,101,976 | 1092629.417 | 0.85% | 1108213.4 | 0.57% |
| 17 | 2021 | 1,191,028 | 1142335.601 | 4.09% | 1133065.8 | 4.87% |
| 对未来五年进行预测 | 预测数据 | 相对误差 | 预测数据 | 相对误差 | ||
| 18 | 2022 |
| 1233724.247 |
| 1155788.7 |
|
| 19 | 2023 |
| 1288593.593 |
| 1183964.7 |
|
| 20 | 2024 |
| 1343462.939 |
| 1212140.7 |
|
| 21 | 2025 |
| 1398332.286 |
| 1240316.8 |
|
| 22 | 2026 |
| 1453201.632 |
| 1268492.5 |
|
| 平均相对误差 |
| 6.24% |
| 4.99% | ||