年

时间

采出程度

(%)

含水率

含水率预测

Gompertz模型

Logistic模型

Usher模型

新模型

1971

1

2.10

0.1022

0.2516

0.2358

0.2176

0.0699

1972

2

3.49

0.1240

0.2603

0.2551

0.2455

0.1141

1973

3

4.88

0.1604

0.2694

0.2753

0.2743

0.1571

1974

4

6.37

0.1877

0.2789

0.2965

0.3039

0.2019

1975

5

7.76

0.2125

0.2889

0.3187

0.3340

0.2421

1976

6

9.08

0.2418

0.2993

0.3417

0.3643

0.2793

1977

7

10.39

0.2883

0.3103

0.3654

0.3946

0.3150

1978

8

11.80

0.3549

0.3217

0.3899

0.4248

0.3526

1979

9

13.27

0.4003

0.3337

0.4149

0.4547

0.3904

1980

10

14.77

0.4225

0.3463

0.4403

0.4841

0.4279

1981

11

16.57

0.4245

0.3595

0.4661

0.5128

0.4713

1982

12

18.79

0.4548

0.3734

0.4920

0.5407

0.5225

1983

13

21.09

0.5018

0.3879

0.5180

0.5677

0.5730

1984

14

23.35

0.5667

0.4032

0.5439

0.5939

0.6203

1985

15

25.62

0.6501

0.4192

0.5696

0.6190

0.6656

1986

16

27.67

0.7291

0.4361

0.5949

0.6430

0.7045

1987

17

29.41

0.7565

0.4538

0.6197

0.6660

0.7363

1988

18

30.79

0.7994

0.4724

0.6439

0.6879

0.7607

1989

19

31.98

0.8123

0.4921

0.6673

0.7086

0.7811

1990

20

33.13

0.8238

0.5127

0.6900

0.7283

0.8003

1991

21

34.15

0.8469

0.5345

0.7118

0.7469

0.8169

1992

22

35.03

0.8713

0.5574

0.7327

0.7644

0.8309

1993

23

35.78

0.8839

0.5816

0.7525

0.7810

0.8425

1994

24

36.45

0.8873

0.6071

0.7714

0.7965

0.8528

1995

25

37.10

0.8764

0.6339

0.7892

0.8110

0.8626

1996

26

37.67

0.8645

0.6623

0.8060

0.8247

0.8711

1997

27

38.21

0.8514

0.6923

0.8217

0.8374

0.8791

1998

28

38.60

0.8452

0.7240

0.8365

0.8493

0.8846

1999

29

38.89

0.8444

0.7574

0.8502

0.8604

0.8888

2000

30

39.23

0.8959

0.7928

0.8630

0.8708

0.8936

2001

31

39.55

0.9005

0.8303

0.8748

0.8804

0.8981

2002

32

39.84

0.9104

0.8699

0.8858

0.8894

0.9022

2003

33

40.11

0.9191

0.9119

0.8959

0.8977

0.9060

2004

34

40.38

0.9198

0.9564

0.9052

0.9055

0.9096

2005

35

40.62

0.9232

0.9137

0.9127

0.9130

2006

36

40.83

0.9223

0.9216

0.9193

0.9158

2007

37

41.03

0.9214

0.9288

0.9255

0.9186

2008

38

41.21

0.9245

0.9354

0.9312

0.9209

2009

39

41.39

0.9273

0.9414

0.9365

0.9233

2010

40

41.57

0.9217

0.9469

0.9414

0.9257

2011

41

41.75

0.9234

0.9519

0.9460

0.9281

2012

42

41.93

0.9231

0.9564

0.9502

0.9304

2013

43

42.09

0.9220

0.9605

0.9540

0.9325

2014

44

42.23

0.9201

0.9643

0.9576

0.9344

2015

45

42.36

0.9191

0.9677

0.9609

0.9361

2016

46

42.48

0.9231

0.9708

0.9640

0.9376

2017

47

42.59

0.9235

0.9736

0.9668

0.9390

2018

48

42.69

0.9281

0.9762

0.9694

0.9402

2019

49

42.78

0.9314

0.9785

0.9718

0.9414

2020

50

42.85

0.9411

0.9805

0.9740

0.9423