年份

实际值/万m3

GM(1,1)模型

改进GM(1,1)模型

模型值/万m3

相对误差/%

模型值/万m3

相对误差/%

2003

170,112

170,112

0

170,112

0

2004

133,158

121,349.9

8.87%

138,082

3.70%

2005

152,367.05

164,729.8

8.11%

161,037

5.69%

2006

186,598.38

198,754.6

6.51%

193,287

3.58%

2007

166,140.77

175,004.5

5.34%

168,988

1.71%

2008

169,104.1

169,510.0

0.24%

170,427

0.78%

2009

165,583.6

156,828.0

5.29%

161,529

2.45%

2010

161,156

147,968.1

8.18%

151,844

5.78%

2011

157,188

149,342.4

4.99%

151,071

3.89%

2012

149,602

165,619.0

10.71%

155,734

4.10%