年份

实际值

指数曲线

APE (%)

修正指数曲线

APE (%)

振荡指数曲线

APE (%)

2004

1586.8

1716.4824

8.1726

1623.3590

2.3040

1632.5780

2.8849

2005

1803.4

1825.0526

1.2007

1760.174

2.3969

1785.0933

1.0151

2006

1977.8

1940.4899

1.8864

1900.36

3.9155

1942.2660

1.7966

2007

2150.3

2063.2288

4.0493

2044.001

4.9434

2098.2136

2.4223

2008

2231.2

2193.7312

1.6793

2191.183

1.7935

2246.0701

0.6665

2009

2329.5

2332.4880

0.1283

2341.992

0.5362

2384.0208

2.3405

2010

2491.3

2480.0215

0.4527

2496.517

0.2094

2516.6567

1.0178

2011

2690.1

2636.8866

1.9781

2654.851

1.3103

2650.3982

1.4758

2012

2799.1

2803.6737

0.1634

2817.088

0.6426

2787.1902

0.4255

2013

2907.0

2981.0103

2.5459

2983.322

2.6255

2922.2588

0.5249

2014

2973.5

3169.5637

6.5937

3153.654

6.0587

3047.9856

2.5050

2015

3009.8

3370.0435

11.9690

3328.184

10.5782

3160.3295

5.0013

2016

3047.2

3583.2038

17.5900

3507.015

15.0897

3261.8827

7.0452

2017

3132.2

3809.8469

21.6349

3690.253

17.8166

3358.7418

7.2327

${\text{MAPE}}_{\text{fit}}$ (%)

1.5649

2.0415

1.2983

${\text{MAPE}}_{\text{fore}}$ (%)

14.4469

12.3858

5.4461

${\text{MAPE}}_{\text{total}}$ (%)

5.5286

5.2244

2.5746