| 单位 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
电力需求 | TWh | 174.28 | 183.22 | 192.61 | 202.50 | 212.88 | 223.80 | 235.29 | 247.36 | 260.04 | 273.39 |
热需求 |
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工业热需求 | TWh | 3.34 | 3.75 | 4.21 | 4.72 | 5.29 | 5.94 | 6.66 | 7.47 | 8.38 | 9.41 |
住宅热需求 | TWh | 1.07 | 1.22 | 1.39 | 1.58 | 1.80 | 2.05 | 2.33 | 2.65 | 3.02 | 3.44 |
交通用能需求 |
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电动汽车 | 万辆 | 7.92 | 18.59 | 29.26 | 39.93 | 50.60 | 61.27 | 71.94 | 82.61 | 93.28 | 103.95 |
电动汽车耗电量 | TWh | 0.17 | 0.40 | 0.63 | 0.86 | 1.09 | 1.32 | 1.55 | 1.78 | 2.01 | 2.25 |
电力 | TWh | 3.47 | 3.64 | 3.83 | 4.03 | 4.23 | 4.45 | 4.68 | 4.92 | 5.17 | 5.44 |
汽油 | TWh | 29.62 | 30.19 | 30.76 | 31.33 | 31.91 | 32.48 | 33.05 | 33.62 | 34.19 | 34.77 |
柴油 | TWh | 31.43 | 32.04 | 32.64 | 33.25 | 33.86 | 34.46 | 35.07 | 35.68 | 36.29 | 36.89 |
煤油 | TWh | 5.81 | 5.92 | 6.04 | 6.15 | 6.26 | 6.37 | 6.48 | 6.60 | 6.71 | 6.82 |
天然气 | TWh | 4.00 | 4.07 | 4.15 | 4.23 | 4.31 | 4.38 | 4.46 | 4.54 | 4.61 | 4.69 |
LNG | TWh | 0.70 | 0.71 | 0.73 | 0.74 | 0.75 | 0.77 | 0.78 | 0.79 | 0.81 | 0.82 |
工业用能需求 |
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煤炭 | TWh | 361.64 | 361.64 | 361.64 | 361.64 | 361.64 | 361.64 | 361.64 | 361.64 | 361.64 | 361.64 |
石油 | TWh | 92.77 | 100.50 | 108.23 | 115.96 | 123.69 | 131.42 | 139.15 | 146.87 | 154.60 | 162.33 |
天然气 | TWh | 35.71 | 38.85 | 41.99 | 45.13 | 48.26 | 51.40 | 54.54 | 57.68 | 60.82 | 63.96 |
装机容量 | MW | 75,730 | 85,834 | 95,606 | 105,053 | 114,190 | 124,395 | 134,301 | 143,918 | 153,261 | 162,340 |
合计发电量 | TWh | 236.86 | 268.37 | 288.83 | 307.96 | 325.83 | 345.92 | 364.77 | 382.47 | 399.04 | 414.53 |
电力出口量 | TWh | 62.58 | 65.65 | 68.86 | 72.24 | 75.78 | 79.49 | 83.39 | 87.47 | 91.76 | 96.25 |
水电装机容量 | MW | 22,830 | 22,830 | 22,830 | 22,830 | 22,830 | 23,064 | 23,298 | 23,532 | 23,766 | 24,000 |
水电发电量 | TWh | 73.40 | 83.10 | 83.10 | 83.10 | 83.10 | 83.97 | 84.83 | 85.70 | 86.57 | 87.44 |
风电装机容量 | GW | 5.8 | 7.05 | 8.3 | 9.55 | 10.8 | 11.64 | 12.48 | 13.32 | 14.16 | 15 |
风电发电量 | TWh | 10.50 | 12.76 | 15.03 | 17.29 | 19.55 | 21.07 | 22.59 | 24.11 | 25.63 | 27.15 |
光伏装机容量 | GW | 11.37 | 16.28 | 21.20 | 26.10 | 31.00 | 36.80 | 42.60 | 48.40 | 54.20 | 60.00 |
光伏发电量 | TWh | 8.30 | 11.88 | 15.47 | 19.05 | 22.63 | 26.86 | 31.10 | 35.33 | 39.57 | 43.80 |
火电装机占比 | / | 45.8% | 44.8% | 43.9% | 42.9% | 42.0% | 41.1% | 40.2% | 39.3% | 38.5% | 37.6% |
煤电装机容量 | MW | 34,690 | 38,497 | 41,971 | 45,120 | 47,960 | 51,151 | 54,043 | 56,646 | 58,975 | 61,040 |
煤电发电量 | TWh | 141.12 | 156.61 | 170.74 | 183.55 | 195.10 | 208.09 | 219.85 | 230.44 | 239.91 | 248.31 |
天然气发电装机 | MW | 635 | 731 | 827 | 923 | 1019 | 1115 | 1211 | 1307 | 1403 | 1500 |
天然气发电量 | TWh | 2.17 | 2.50 | 2.83 | 3.15 | 3.48 | 3.81 | 4.14 | 4.47 | 4.79 | 5.13 |
生物质装机 | MW | 405 | 449 | 493 | 537 | 581 | 625 | 669 | 713 | 757 | 800 |
生物质发电量 | TWh | 1.37 | 1.52 | 1.67 | 1.82 | 1.97 | 2.12 | 2.27 | 2.42 | 2.57 | 2.71 |
热电联产装机 | MW | 380.57 | 426.93 | 478.93 | 537.26 | 602.70 | 676.11 | 758.46 | 850.84 | 954.47 | 1070.73 |
锅炉装机容量 | MW | 121.82 | 138.68 | 157.88 | 179.73 | 204.60 | 232.92 | 265.15 | 301.85 | 343.63 | 391.19 |
电化学储能装机 | MW | 0 | 450 | 900 | 1350 | 1800 | 2250 | 2700 | 3150 | 3600 | 4050 |
电化学储量 | GWh | 0 | 1.78 | 3.56 | 5.34 | 7.12 | 8.90 | 10.68 | 12.46 | 14.24 | 16.02 |
抽蓄装机 | MW | 0 | 550 | 1100 | 1650 | 2200 | 2750 | 3300 | 3850 | 4400 | 4950 |
抽蓄容量 | GWh | 0.00 | 5.56 | 11.12 | 16.68 | 22.24 | 27.80 | 33.36 | 38.92 | 44.48 | 50.04 |