模型名称

参数估计值

MSE

AIC

Model1

GO

$a=632.6$

$b=0.0231$

961

746

Model2

DSS

$a=604.0$

$b=0.0514$

4029

901

Model3

GO_ASDE

$a_1=94.5$

$b_1=0.0231$

${\delta }_1=0.0318$

129

455

$a_2=329$

$b_2=0.1133$

${\delta }_2=0.3859$

$a_3=89.4$

$b_3=0.0127$

${\delta }_3=0.0016$

$a_4=190$

$b_4=0.0081$

${\delta }_4=0.0299$

Model4

DSS_ASDE

$a_1=88.00$

$b_1=0.0545$

${\delta }_1=0.00001$

190

486

$a_2=290.5$

$b_2=0.1250$

${\delta }_2=0.0029$

$a_3=71.36$

$b_3=0.0427$

${\delta }_3=0.0457$

$a_4=119.5$

$b_4=0.0395$

${\delta }_4=0.0888$