年份

序列值

X(1)模拟值

X(0)模拟值

残差

相对模拟误差(%)

2017.6

5.117

5.117

5.117

0

0

2017.9

5.555

9.9371

4.8200

0.7349155

13.22980%

2017.12

5.630

15.3640

5.4270

0.2030488

3.606550%

2018.3

5.755

21.4743

6.1102

−0.3552248

6.172455%

2018.6

6.094

28.3538

6.8795

−0.7855251

12.89014%

2018.9

6.722

36.0995

7.7457

−1.023683

15.22885%

2018.12

7.524

44.8204

8.7209

−1.196894

15.90768%

2019.3

8.594

54.6393

9.8189

−1.224887

14.25282%

2019.6

8.759

65.6944

11.0551

−2.296122

26.21443%

2019.9

12.123

78.1414

12.4470

−0.3240034

2.672634%

2019.12

13.827

92.1555

14.0141

−0.1871279

1.353352%

2020.3

15.968

107.9341

15.7786

0.1894407

1.186377%

2020.6

18.576

125.6992

17.7651

0.8108607

4.365099%

2020.9

19.251

145.7010

20.0018

−0.7508371

3.900250%

2020.12

23.052

168.2212

22.5201

0.5318564

2.307203%

2021.3

26.769

193.5767

25.3555

1.413486

5.280308%

2021.6

29.317

222.1246

28.5479

0.7691310

2.623498%

2021.9

31.936

254.2667

32.1422

−0.2061531

0.6455195%

2021.12

35.397

290.4557

36.1890

−0.7919711

2.237396%

2022.3

39.195

331.2010

40.7453

−1.550299

3.955348%

2022.6

43.618

377.0763

45.8753

−2.257285

5.175123%