年、月

期数

CPI

ARMA

二次曲线

拟合值

相对误差(%)

拟合值

相对误差(%)

2014.01

1

102.5

102.556

0.064

2014.02

2

102.0

102.416

0.408

2014.03

3

102.4

102.674

0.27

102.284

0.113

2014.04

4

101.8

101.867

0.07

102..162

0.356

2014.05

5

102.5

102.275

0.22

102.049

0.440

2014.06

6

102.3

101.775

0.51

101.946

0.347

2014.07

7

102.3

101.980

0.31

101.851

0.439

2014.08

8

102.0

101.667

0.33

101.765

0.231

2014.09

9

101.6

101.763

0.16

101.688

0.087

2014.10

10

101.6

101.564

0.04

101.621

0.020

2014.11

11

101.4

101.605

0.20

101.562

0.160

2014.12

12

101.5

101.480

0.02

101.512

0.012

2015.01

13

100.8

101.497

0.69

101.472

0.667

2015.02

14

101.4

101.422

0.02

101.441

0.040

2015.03

15

101.4

101.433

0.03

101.418

0.018

2015.04

16

101.3

101.394

0.09

101.405

0.104

2015.05

17

101.2

101.409

0.21

101.401

0.199

2015.06

18

101.4

101.400

0.00

101.406

0.006

2015.07

19

101.6

101.425

0.17

101.420

0.177

2015.08

20

102.0

101.439

0.55

101.443

0.546

2015.09

21

101.6

101.478

0.12

101.475

0.123

2015.10

22

101.3

101.514

0.21

101.516

0.213

2015.11

23

101.5

101.568

0.07

101.566

0.065

2015.12

24

101.6

101.625

0.02

101.626

0.025

误差平方和

1.640

1.681