月份

实际值 (千万美元)

SARIMA(0,1,1) × (0,1,1)12预测值

误差/%

Holt-Winters三参数指数模型预测值

误差/%

2022-1

253.63

271.57

7.07%

266.85

5.21%

2022-2

191.31

225.31

17.77%

230.28

20.37%

2022-3

268.20

260.13

−.01%

275.9

2.87%

2022-4

239.67

274.49

14.53%

289.56

20.82%

2022-5

203.10

273.17

34.50%

285.83

40.74%

2022-6

260.07

285.70

9.85%

295.27

13.53%

2022-7

301.43

304.07

2022-8

298.50

296.66

2022-9

298.65

292.70

2022-10

288.91

279.12

2022-11

300.15

286.40

2022-12

314.04

293.68