年份 | 实际产量 /万吨 | 预测产量 /万吨 | 绝对预测误差 /万吨 | 相对误差 | 平均相对 误差% | 后验差比值 | 精度 |
2004 | 87.17 | 87.17 | 0 | 13.67% | 0.2350814 | 86.33% | |
2005 | 95.96 | 57.47266 | 38.48734 | 0.401076907 | |||
2006 | 109.19 | 65.5319 | 43.6581 | 0.399836066 | |||
2007 | 111.19 | 74.72127 | 36.47277078 | 0.328010121 | |||
2008 | 110.95 | 85.19923 | 25.74781336 | 0.232073002 | |||
2009 | 114.75 | 97.1465 | 17.6049534 | 0.15341813 | |||
2010 | 117.21 | 110.7691 | 6.439710705 | 0.054942207 | |||
2011 | 121.81 | 126.3019 | 4.492837812 | 0.036884266 | |||
2012 | 139.89 | 144.0129 | 4.123566628 | 0.029477348 | |||
2013 | 159.23 | 164.2075 | 4.976852794 | 0.031255621 | |||
2014 | 187.34 | 187.2339 | 0.106265469 | 0.000567233 | |||
2015 | 216.89 | 213.4892 | 3.395944436 | 0.015657801 | |||
2016 | 235.84 | 243.4262 | 7.584955899 | 0.032161278 | |||
2017 | 280.14 | 277.5612 | 2.575322915 | 0.009193099 | |||
2018 | 369.01 | 316.4829 | 52.528127 | 0.142348394 | |||
2019 | 441.98 | 360.8625 | 81.121757 | 0.183539924 |