年份

实际产量 /万吨

预测产量 /万吨

绝对预测误差 /万吨

相对误差

平均相对 误差%

后验差比值

精度

2004

87.17

87.17

0

13.67%

0.2350814

86.33%

2005

95.96

57.47266

38.48734

0.401076907

2006

109.19

65.5319

43.6581

0.399836066

2007

111.19

74.72127

36.47277078

0.328010121

2008

110.95

85.19923

25.74781336

0.232073002

2009

114.75

97.1465

17.6049534

0.15341813

2010

117.21

110.7691

6.439710705

0.054942207

2011

121.81

126.3019

4.492837812

0.036884266

2012

139.89

144.0129

4.123566628

0.029477348

2013

159.23

164.2075

4.976852794

0.031255621

2014

187.34

187.2339

0.106265469

0.000567233

2015

216.89

213.4892

3.395944436

0.015657801

2016

235.84

243.4262

7.584955899

0.032161278

2017

280.14

277.5612

2.575322915

0.009193099

2018

369.01

316.4829

52.528127

0.142348394

2019

441.98

360.8625

81.121757

0.183539924