模型 表达式 约束条件 1. LC (1992) $\mathrm{log}it\left({q}_{x,t}\right)={\alpha }_{x}+{\beta }_{x}{\kappa }_{t}+{\epsilon }_{x,t}$ $\sum {\beta }_{x}=1$ ， $\sum {\kappa }_{t}=0$ 2. RH (2006) $\mathrm{log}it\left({q}_{x,t}\right)={\alpha }_{x}+{\beta }_{x}^{\left(1\right)}{\kappa }_{t}+{\beta }_{x}^{\left(2\right)}{\gamma }_{t-x}+{\epsilon }_{x,t}$ $\sum {\beta }_{x}^{\left(1\right)}=1$ ， $\sum {\beta }_{x}^{\left(2\right)}=1$ ， $\sum {\kappa }_{t}=0$ ， $\sum {\gamma }_{t-x}=0$ 3. APC (2006) $\mathrm{log}it\left({q}_{x,t}\right)={\alpha }_{x}+{\kappa }_{t}^{}+{\gamma }_{t-x}+{\epsilon }_{x,t}$ $\sum {\kappa }_{t}=0$ ， $\sum {\gamma }_{t-x}=0$ ， $\sum \left(t-x\right){\gamma }_{t-x}=0$ 4. CBD (2006) $\mathrm{log}it\left({q}_{x,t}\right)={\kappa }_{t}^{\left(1\right)}+{\kappa }_{t}^{\left(2\right)}\left(x-\overline{x}\right)+{\epsilon }_{x,t}$ 无 5. PLAT (2009) $\begin{array}{l}\mathrm{log}it\left({q}_{x,t}\right)={\alpha }_{x}+{\kappa }_{t}^{\left(1\right)}+{\kappa }_{t}^{\left(2\right)}\left(\overline{x}-x\right)\\ \text{}+{\kappa }_{t}^{\left(3\right)}{\left(\overline{x}-x\right)}^{+}+{\gamma }_{t-x}+{\epsilon }_{x,t}\end{array}$ $\sum {\kappa }_{t}^{\left(3\right)}=0$ ， $\sum {\gamma }_{t-x}=0$ ， $\sum \left(t-x\right){\gamma }_{t-x}=0$