年份

原始结婚人数 (万对)

GM预测数

马尔可夫链 预测值

移动平均法

两参数预测

1986

882.3

882.3

882.3

1987

924.7

889.3281

900.078345

1988

899.2

893.0395

907.248

1989

934.8

896.7663

911.034245925

1990

951.1

900.5087

977.475267

1991

953.6

904.2667

981.554483

1992

954.5

908.0404

985.36

1993

912.1

911.8299

989.72

1994

929

915.6351

930.203272485

1995

929.7

919.4562

933.43725

1996

934

923.2933

937.51785

1997

909

927.1464

941.897659995

1998

891.8

931.0156

945.82839996

1999

885.3

934.9009

949.77556434

2000

848.5

938.8025

952.82

2001

805

942.7202

779.2

2002

786

946.6545

782.457766

2003

811.4

950.605

785.723235

2004

867.2

954.5721

789

2005

823.1

958.5557

792.294843

2006

945

962.556

795.6

2007

991.4

966.5729

981.9515034

2008

1098.3

970.6066

986

2009

1212.2

974.6572

1057.961194

2010

1241

978.7246

1218.3215

2011

1302.4

982.809

1223.40575

2012

1323.6

986.9105

1228.638125

2013

1346.9

991.0291

1233.638125

2014

1306.7

995.1649

1238.786375

2015

1224.7

999.3179

1243.956125

2016

1142.8

1003.488

1249.147375

2017

1063.1

1007.676

1093.8

1237

1055.7693

2018

1013.9

1011.881

1098.36684

1205.1

958.7965

2019

927.3

1016.104

1032.27

1173.185

861.8237

2020

814.3

1020.344

1036.5784956

1141.265

764.851

2021

763.6

1024.603

846.88552

1109.346

667.8782

2022

896.527625

1077.427

570.9