时间 | 实际值 | 预测值 | |||||
季节ARIMA模型 | 相对误差(100%) | GM(1,1)模型 | 相对误差(100%) | ARIMA-GM组合模型 | 相对误差(100%) | ||
2016-Q1 | 5148.25 | 5342.119 | 3.7657 | 5263.643 | 2.2414 | 5315.389 | 3.2659 |
2016-Q2 | 9264.20 | 9275.529 | 0.1222 | 9489.867 | 2.4359 | 9345.805 | 0.8809 |
2016-Q3 | 13945.95 | 13,800.093 | 1.0459 | 14,236.490 | 2.0833 | 13,943.176 | 0.0198 |
2016-Q4 | 19354.00 | 18,994.838 | 1.8557 | 20,215.45 | 4.4510 | 19,395.043 | 0.2121 |
2017-Q1 | 5571.80 | 5956.287 | 6.9005 | 5778.144 | 3.3703 | 5897.879 | 5.8523 |
2017-Q2 | 10036.70 | 9971.728 | 0.6473 | 10,400.65 | 3.6262 | 10,112.360 | 0.7538 |
2017-Q3 | 15138.75 | 14,638.595 | 3.3038 | 15,715.88 | 3.8123 | 14,991.807 | 0.9706 |
2017-Q4 | 21012.16 | 19,990.993 | 4.8599 | 22,591.74 | 7.5175 | 20,843.706 | 0.8017 |
平均相对误差(100%) | 2.8127 | 3.7339 | 1.5946 |