年份 | 原始数据 | GM(1,N)模型 | 时滞GM(1,N)模型 | GM(1,N)幂模型 | DGPM(1,N)模型 | ||||
模拟值 | 误差(%) | 模拟值 | 误差(%) | 模拟值 | 误差(%) | 模拟值 | 误差(%) | ||
2014 | 10,646 | 10,646 | - | 10,646 | - | 10,646 | - | 10,646 | - |
2015 | 10,548 | 9065 | 14.06% | 8379 | 16.87% | 10,364 | 1.74% | 10,796 | 2.35% |
2016 | 10,532 | 11,466 | 8.87% | 10,865 | 6.68% | 10,666 | 1.28% | 10,539 | 0.07% |
2017 | 10,767 | 11,049 | 2.62% | 10,855 | 1.10% | 10,944 | 1.65% | 10,654 | 1.05% |
2018 | 11,056 | 11,128 | 0.65% | 10,994 | 0.29% | 11,059 | 0.03% | 10,918 | 1.25% |
2019 | 11,311 | 11,282 | 0.26% | 11,244 | 0.55% | 11,113 | 1.75% | 11,189 | 1.08% |
MAPE | 5.29% | 5.10% | 1.29% | 1.16% | |||||
年份 | 原始数据 | 测试值 | 误差(%) | 测试值 | 误差(%) | 测试值 | 误差(%) | 测试值 | 误差(%) |
2020 | 11,461 | 11,361 | 0.87% | 11,641 | 1.12% | 11,173 | 2.52% | 11,483 | 0.19% |
2021 | 12,040 | 11,702 | 2.81% | 12,172 | 1.15% | 11,428 | 5.09% | 12,147 | 0.89% |
MAPE | 1.84% | 1.14% | 3.80% | 0.54% |