原假设

F统计值

P值

结论

LNP does not Granger Cause M2

1.68512

0.2025

接受

M2 does not Granger Cause LNP

0.11237

0.9763

接受

LNP does not Granger Cause LNY

1.05484

0.4104

接受

LNY does not Granger Cause LNP

3.40380

0.0340

拒绝

LNP does not Granger Cause S

6.95807

0.0019

拒绝

S does not Granger Cause LNP

1.01304

0.4299

接受

M2 does not Granger Cause LNY

6.27177

0.0031

拒绝

LNY does not Granger Cause M2

0.98680

0.4426

接受

S does not Granger Cause LNY

3.51843

0.0304

拒绝

LNY does not Granger Cause S

1.95722

0.1499

接受

S does not Granger Cause M2

1.49751

0.2497

接受

M2 does not Granger Cause S

1.13237

0.3764

接受

Excluded

Chi-sq

df

Prob.

M2

6.006230

4

0.1987

S

3.563782

4

0.4682

LNY

14.23770

4

0.0066

All

21.95587

12

0.0380