年份 | 真实值 | ARIMA (0,2,0) | 相对误差(%) | 年份 | 真实值 | ARIMA(0,2,0) | 相对误差(%) |
1991 | 893.49 | - | - | 2005 | 8659.91 | 8596.48 | 0.732 |
1992 | 1096.86 | - | - | 2006 | 9843.34 | 9729.53 | 1.156 |
1993 | 1377.78 | 1300.23 | 5.629 | 2007 | 11573.97 | 11026.77 | 4.728 |
1994 | 1761.24 | 1658.70 | 5.822 | 2008 | 14535.4 | 13304.60 | 8.468 |
1995 | 2155.13 | 2144.70 | 0.484 | 2009 | 17541.92 | 17496.83 | 0.257 |
1996 | 2709.42 | 2549.02 | 5.920 | 2010 | 19980.39 | 20548.44 | 2.843 |
1997 | 3196.71 | 3263.71 | 2.096 | 2011 | 24345.91 | 22418.86 | 7.915 |
1998 | 3678.72 | 3684.00 | 0.144 | 2012 | 28119.00 | 28711.43 | 2.107 |
1999 | 4047.50 | 4160.73 | 2.798 | 2013 | 31668.95 | 31892.09 | 0.705 |
2000 | 4586.63 | 4416.28 | 3.714 | 2014 | 35312.4 | 35218.90 | 0.265 |
2001 | 5025.93 | 5125.76 | 1.986 | 2015 | 40974.64 | 38955.85 | 4.927 |
2002 | 5790.03 | 5465.23 | 5.610 | 2016 | 46344.88 | 46636.88 | 0.630 |
2003 | 6584.10 | 6554.13 | 0.455 | 2017 | 52598.28 | 51715.12 | 1.679 |
2004 | 7590.29 | 7378.17 | 2.795 | - | - | - | - |